How likely is a hole in the radiator causing leak? 2010 FX35

Well a HOLE in the radiator is like having a HOLE in a bucket - if there is fluid in the bucket - it leaks out!

A radiator can have leaks due to holes caused by seam failures from corrosion or manufacturing issues, or some kind of debris may have struck it -- although that's not as common, as the air conditioning condenser sits in front of the radiator and would take the brunt of any impact. Unless -- some kind of debris damaged both components. Still, physical damage is possible, and the definite cause would be more approachable with a physical hands on inspection, something we (of course) can't do here.