this is a tough question to answer with true accuracy. v.w. states that " belt should be replaced at 60k, no later than 90k " NOT a very clear answer. This is the bottom line, I have seen them break prior to 90k although only 2 or 3 times. the odds are very much in your favor but the risk you take is very pricey. broken t/belt will cause engine damage(90% of the time bent valves = head removal=1500-1900 $) 10% damaged pistons (you don't want to know $). long winded way of saying anything past 60k is a gamble. p.s. if you do have the belt done replace water pump as well as these pumps use a plastic impeller that is a very common failure for v.w. and choose a qualified facility for this repair (christian bros. , mph auto, star tech, or us) as many shops are not familiar w/ german autos. thank you--cliff